Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will the Santa Rally Happen? Analysis of Whipsaw and Daily Chart Opportunities
Bitcoin Market Outlook and Strategic Entry Points
Bitcoin experienced a whipsaw move near the resistance line. We analyze whether a Santa Rally is possible or if we should prepare for a retest of the 74K floor.
Check Daily Buy Signal1. Yesterday's Fake-out: Breakout Failure and Retest
Bitcoin recently attempted to break through the upper resistance line of its descending channel. However, it failed to maintain momentum and was pushed back into the channel, creating a classic whipsaw move. This indicates a lack of short-term buying pressure at higher levels. Current market sentiment is closely tied to the performance of the Nasdaq and Gold as we approach the end of the year.
2. Future Scenarios: Santa Rally vs. Bottom Retest
There are two primary paths for Bitcoin as we head into 2026. If the US stock market remains strong, Bitcoin could decouple from its current bearish structure and target the 88K region. Conversely, if resistance holds, we may see a retest of the major support level at 74K.
| Scenario | Target Level | Key Condition |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario A: Santa Rally | 88K - 90K | Breakout with high volume |
| Scenario B: Bottom Retest | 74K - 80K | Failure to hold 80.6K support |
| Long-term Outlook | Bullish | 2026 Cycle remains intact |
3. Core: Daily Bullish Divergence Opportunity
The most critical signal to watch is the potential Bullish Divergence on the daily chart. If the price drops to create a new low while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) maintains a higher low, it would signal a powerful trend reversal. Patience is key; waiting for this divergence to be confirmed on the daily close could provide a high-probability entry point for the next leg up.
4. Conclusion and Summary
Bitcoin is currently navigating a directionless phase within a descending channel. While yesterday's breakout was a fake-out, a further dip could actually complete a perfect setup for a daily bullish divergence. Investors should avoid impulsive trades and wait for clear confirmation at major support levels. Disclaimer: This analysis represents personal views and is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
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